Monday, September 20, 2010

It's official! The Recession is over...Just in time for the second dip?

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has long ago deemed itself as the official determiner of recessions--when they begin and when they end.  Today, they have announced--that which I have been saying since at least March 2010 is true--that the recession ended in June 2009.  Here is the link.

So with this incredibly after-the-fact announcement, we find ourselves with national unemployment at 9.6% and North Carolina at 9.7%.  Additionally, we are seeing that the housing market is collapsing (again).  More importantly, we see that firms are expecting the other shoe to fall soon.  The Fed has done more than most thought they would.  The stimulus has now proven to be a failure.  The national debt is sky high.  Social Security, Medicaid and Medicare are unsustainable.  In the face of this, the federal government is burdening the economy with more rules, regulations and taxes.

I am certain that we are in a pause between two painful economic episodes.  Many expect the next election will sort everything out.  I am not quite so hopeful.  The country does need to turn back toward that which works--markets.  However, I do not see that turn any time soon. 

Initially, the Great Depression was merely a bad economic downturn.  In fact, it wasn't even as bad as the initial drop in 1920.  In stepped Hoover and made a bad situation worse.  He turned the country away from markets and sent us down the wrong path.  FDR campaigned against Hoover's crazy spending, but unfortunately not only did he not keep his promise, he increased spending and regulations! 

If we can survive FDR's National Recovery Act, we can survive the current federalization of the economy.  The question is how long will it be until we realize that this path leads us to failure.  How long will it take until we turn back to markets and prosperity?

Thursday, September 9, 2010

Is There Another Recession Around the Corner?

The best indicator of a recession has been the Term Structure of Interest Rate, better known as the “yield curve.” When the yield curve inverts, the economy slips into a recession approximately 4 - 6 quarters later. For my explanation of why this occurs, you can read my article here: http://pcpe.libinst.cz/nppe/1_1/nppe1_1_1.pdf or you can read the full dissertation here: http://mises.org/etexts/cwik-dissertation.pdf.


The yield curve has been making some troubling signs. Typically, the yield curve has an upward slope, and it looks like this:



However, when the economy reaches the upper turning point and is poised to fall into a recession, the short-term end rises relative to the long-term end. When this happens, it is called an inverted yield curve. We can plot the slope of the yield curve by simply taking the difference between the long and short ends. When the yield curve is upward sloping, the difference is a positive number. When the yield curve inverts, we have a negative number.

Here is a chart illustrating this difference over the past ten years:


(You can click on this picture for a close up.)

As we can see, the difference is falling again. The 10 year – 3 month spread dropped more than a 110 basis points from a recent high of 3.69 in April to 2.54 in August. The 10 year – 1 year spread dropped almost a 100 basis points from a recent high of 3.40 in April to 2.44 in August. The 20 year – 3 month spread dropped 101 basis points from a recent high of 4.37 in April to 3.36 in August. And the 30 year – 3 month spread dropped almost a 100 basis points from a recent high of 4.53 in April to 3.64 in August.


Each of these indicators fell by about 100 basis points in only 5 months, from April to August. This is a very sharp decline. The Fed has been absolutely flooding the market with as much money as the market can take. Many economists think that the Fed is running out of room to maneuver. 3-month T-Bills are under .20% and have been since April of 2009. 1-year T-Bills are now under .25% and with the Fed stimulant, there is a continuing downward trend. The question on the table is how long will this untenable situation remain?


When we see short-term interest rates start to rise, we will not the long-term rates follow suit. I am expecting to see the yield curve continue to flatten. If trends continue as they are, we are staring at a potential second dip in this recession.

Tuesday, September 7, 2010

Austrian Economics Forum Fall 2010 #1

August 25th was the kick-off to a new season of Austrian Economics readings! (Did you expect me to say football? Hardly!) This semester we are reading Friedrich A. Hayek’s Individualism and Economic Order. The first two readings were: “Individualism: True and False” (Chapter 1) and “The Facts of the Social Sciences” (Chapter 3).  (The book is found here: http://mises.org/books/individualismandeconomicorder.pdf)

There were about a dozen students attending the session. Professor Margolis and I were also there, but unfortunately Roy Cordato and his wife Karen Palasek were out of town. The session started slowly and found its footing as we got moving. I noticed that several of the students received their copy of the book when they arrived that afternoon, so I suspect that many of the students had not read the articles for discussion. I am hoping that the next session will have more student participation.

In the first chapter “Individualism: True and False,” Hayek begins by stating that there are really two definitions of individualism. At their root, they each have the word “equality” in common, but from this point the two branches of thought diverge and lead to positions that are not merely incompatible with each other, but are in direct conflict.

Readers of Hayek will recognize the first strand of thought as the traditional classical liberal view of the individual who has the same equal rights as any other individual. This individual has the liberty and the responsibility to chart his own life’s course. Such a position has been demagogued and characterized as one where the individual lives in isolation and must be completely self-sufficient. While some individuals choose to live this way, this lifestyle is not what Hayek is trying to explain. Hayek attacks this argument as the straw man for which it is. Instead, Hayek argues that in order for a society to work, individuals must be free to pursue their own goals. In fact, he contends that civilization itself would collapse if people were not able to freely choose their associations and their methods for achieving their goals.

The second strand of thought comes from the Descartes/Rousseau tradition. They exalt the individual and praise “Reason.” For them, “Reason” is superior to all other forms of human thought. As a result, we should be able to rationally plan society and free ourselves from many pitfalls. Hayek argues that before we start to tear down the institutions that hold society together, we must first understand their role.

A basic tenant in economics is to look beyond what is seen. The economist and social scientist must also look for and think about the unseen. In the unseen parts of institutions, there is knowledge and information that is essential to a well functioning society. To tear down these institutions also tears apart these unseen aspects. Hayek states, “the great lesson which the individualist philosophy teaches us on this score is that, while it may not be difficult to destroy the spontaneous formations which are the indispensable bases of a free civilization, it may be beyond our power deliberately to reconstruct such a civilization once these foundations are destroyed.”

My take on these two world views comes down to the manner in which we see ourselves. Do we see ourselves as fallen beings or as risen apes? When the Age of Reason was ascending, the Western world viewed mankind as fallen beings. “We are imperfect and each capable of great evil. This sinful side of our human nature needs to be checked and balanced.” Thus, the constitutional framers sought to prevent the gathering of power into any one institution’s or person’s hands.

The Descartes/Rousseau world view is that mankind is perfectible. With the rise of Darwinism in the 19th century, we see the push for a collectivism that is perversely (and paradoxically) based on individual reason. “Mankind grew up from the primordial ooze and rose above all other creatures. Why it only stands to Reason that there is no limit to the perfectibility of our nature and society. Every social ill can be cured if we put enough power into the hands of a person who has the ‘right Reasoning.’”

The second article was probably a little too technical for the students who did not have a chance to read it before hand. It wasn’t something that one could pick up as we went along. I found that the article fit well with Mises’ praxeology despite Hayek’s pleas to consider the empirical. I think that the characterization of the Praxeologist deducing the whole of economics from an armchair in an ivory tower to be a straw man. In praxeology, empirical observations are absolutely necessary. For example, we need to know if the society has money or a central bank. These assumptions are based on empirical observation.

In the course of the discussion of the article, there arose the point of whether we can know what another is thinking. And the answer is that of course, we cannot; but that is okay. I, as a social scientist, don’t have to know that person ate breakfast because he was hungry. I can reasonably infer that. In fact, technically, I don’t know that when I see the color red that another person also sees exactly what I see. All that is necessary for understanding is that we agree that the color is “red.” In the same way, I can never know what another is thinking, feeling or experiencing, but I can come “close enough.” In fact, if no one could ever come “close enough” then language would be impossible. The discussion then centered on: how an economist, as a social scientist, is supposed to do his job.

The next readings are Chapters 2 and 4 in the book: “Economics and Knowledge” and “The Use of Knowledge in Society.” These two articles have helped made Hayek famous to economists and social scientists. I look forward to this upcoming discussion group. I just hope that more people will be willing to discuss it.

Saturday, August 14, 2010

US Debt and The Age of the Universe

The size of the US debt has been a growing concern for most citizens. Every new spending measure enacted piles on more debt.

Recently, it occured to me that the size of our debt is about 1,000 times larger than the age of the universe.

The US national debt is approximately $13,325,000,000,000.
The age of the universe is approximately 13,700,000,000 years.

In other words, if we spent about $1,000 a year, every year, since the beginning of time, we would have a number about the size of our national debt.

Or suppose you spend $2.66 a day, every day, since time began, then you will have matched our national debt.

Something to think about.

Friday, August 13, 2010

Cwik on Mises.org

Here is a link to my article that appears on today's Mises.org.

The title is "Social Insecurity."

I hope you like it.

Monday, August 9, 2010

Introduction to Austrian Economics is Posted (Now Complete!!!)

FEE has now posted all four of my lectures on Austrian Economics. Here are the updated links.

Introduction to Austrian Economics
Lecture #1: Menger and the Early Austrians

This lecture covers the thoughts and ideas that found the Austrian School of Economics. It includes the work of Carl Menger [1840-1921], Eugen von Böhm-Bawerk [1851-1914], Friedrich von Wieser [1851-1926], David I. Green [1864 - 1925], Philip Wicksteed [1844-1927], and William Smart [1853-1915].
The link for the audio page is
here.
You will also find the link for the PowerPoint on the same page or you can directly access it
here.

Lecture #2: Methodology
To my delighted surprise, this lecture received the most attention by the students. It starts with a brief discussion of the Methödenstreit. It then critics Modern Positivism/Empiricism. Finally, it presents the Misesian Praxeological view and the relation between theory and history.
The link for the audio page is
here.
You will also find the link for the PowerPoint on the same page or you can directly access it
here.

Lecture #3: Capital and Interest
This lecture begins with the questions posed by Böhm-Bawerk. It then provides an introduction into Austrian Capital Theory and the Structure of Production. It then presents the traditional Austrian theory of interest. And then draws comparisons between the Austrian view and the Neo-Classical view of capital and interest. A proper understanding of capital and interest theories is critical to understanding business cycle theory.
The link for the audio page is
here.
You will also find the link for the PowerPoint on the same page or you can directly access it
here.

Lecture #4: Business Cycles
This lecture is a more advanced presentation of the Austrian Business Cycle Theory. In the tradition of Roger Garrison, extensive use of graphs is made. The lecture then demonstrates how that simply adjusting the money supply, adjusting prices, or spending money to boost aggregate demand are all inadequate to create an economic recovery. The key to an economic recovery is liquidation of malinvested capital and creation of new and proper capital structures.
The link for the audio page is here.
You will also find the link for the PowerPoint on the same page or you can directly access it here.

A License for what...?

Here was a nice story about a lady who has decided to feed many Hummingbirds. However, during the story, my jaw hit the floor. It's at about 1:13. See if you can catch it.



It's where she says, "Of course, you know, I have to have a license to buy sugar. They think I'm bootlegging or something."
What?!?! The State of North Carolina says that you have to get a license to buy sugar?!?! Are you kidding me?
The erosion and loss of Liberty...